The latest Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) report, published in May, shows like-for-like Q1 2026 value sales, adjusted to remove the impact of trading days, were -0.1% lower than the same period in 2025. Like-for-like volume sales decreased by -4.3%.

With no difference in trading days, unadjusted total value sales were also down -0.1%.  Unadjusted volume sales were -4.3% lower but prices were +4.4% up.

Quarter-on-quarter, like-for-like value sales for Q1 were down -0.5% compared to Q4 2025. Like-for-like volume sales decreased -1.2%. With two extra trading days in the most recent quarter, unadjusted total value sales were +2.7% up, with volumes up +2.0% and prices edging up +0.7%.

March’s like-for-like value sales were down -2.8% compared to the same month the previous year. Like-for-like volume sales fell -5.8% while prices went up +3.2%. With one extra trading day in March 2026 compared to March 2025, unadjusted value sales were up +1.8%, with volumes decreasing -1.3% and prices increasing +3.2%.

Month-on-month, March like-for-like value sales were -0.6% lower than February, with volume sales down -1.8%. With two additional trading days in March, unadjusted value sales increased +9.3%. Unadjusted volumes increased +8.0% and prices also went up +1.2%.

Like-for-like value sales for the 12-month period April 2025 to March 2025 were up +1.7%, compared to the same period a year before (April 2024 to March 2025). Like-for-like volume sales were down -2.7% while prices were +4.5% up. With one less trading day in the most recent period, unadjusted total value sales were up +1.3%, with unadjusted volume sales down -3.1% and prices rising +4.5%.

The like-for-like PHMI Index for March 2026 was 138.1. With one extra trading day compared to the Index base period, the unadjusted value Index was 147.0.

Mike Rigby, MD of MRA Research who produce this report, says: “Every year of the 2020s seems to come with seriously unwelcome surprises, and 2026 is no exception. The Iran war has massively impacted business and consumer confidence and the Q1 merchant sales figures reflect that.

“Research by PwC revealed that 90% of consumers were worried about the cost of living, and almost 80% planned to cut back on spending over the next quarter. Barclays too, found customers trimming out non-essential spending over the first three months of the year. These findings are confirmed in the authoritative April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, which shows a sharp fall in the overall index, down -4 points to -25; the lowest level since February 2023. Consumer expectations for the General Economic Situation over the next 12 months’ fell -6 to -43, six points worse than last year. Their expectations for Personal Financial Situation over the next 12 months dropped -5 points, at -4 it’s one point lower than this time last year. Consumers are saving more (+5 over last month, and two points higher than this time last year), but there was no change to the Major Purchase Index, suggesting no worsening in larger home improvement project spending.

“Cost of fuel and food increases are concerning many people, but there are still pockets of optimism. The Bank of England reported a slight increase in mortgage approvals to 63,500 in Q1 2026, which will be music to developers’ ears. But any significant recovery will be limited by higher mortgage costs, lower affordability and heightened uncertainty fuelled by geopolitical volatility and a lack of direction in Government.

“With the job of Prime Minister in play, and a regional and local government shakeup following the May elections, businesses and consumers are in for a few wait-and-see months. We’re almost halfway through the year but we’re a long way from knowing how 2026 will pan out for Merchants. There are too many balls in the air to tell!”

Following feedback from national and some large regional merchants, MRA Research has made a few changes to the way the plumbing and heating merchants’ sales data is presented in the PHMI reports. More prominence is now being given to like-for-like sales metrics which, adjusted for trading day differences, give a better and more consistent measure of activity than unadjusted total value sales. Most merchants use both unadjusted sales values and like-for-like measures, adjusted for trading days, to give them an accurate steer on the market. There will be further small changes over the coming months to PHMI reporting, with further updates coming in due course.